Do forgive yet another intrusion into American politics (it’s rather a long-winded one), but I would like to address those who believe that Sen. Obama will be the next President. I would like to ask which states they believe he can pick up, because when it is considered that Gov. Bush won electorally over Sen. Kerry (286 to 251), it becomes clear that Obama cannot simply win what Kerry did but must also pick up a few new states.
Polling currently shows a total of 18 new electoral votes being picked up by Obama (Indiana, Iowa, and New Mexico) but the polling in two of these states is almost a month old, and the leads are between 1-5 points. Further while Virginia (13 electoral votes), Ohio (20 votes) and Florida (27 votes) are all very close (but leaning Republican), in light of McCain’s gradual gaining of ground, Obama is in deep trouble.
That Obama has a slight edge is clear, but what is bothersome for him is that his support has remained between 44-47% despite the fact that the wider electorate has now been able to familiarize themselves with him. They have not warmed to him. That they have not latched onto him shows a discomfort with something that his charasmatic speeches have not been able to distract from. While each of the party bases will more or less support their own candidate, it is those who consider themselves ‘independent’ who will determine the Presidency (even if Obama is able to bring out a large number of new voters, which state will he be able to take as a result?).
Obama’s problem should be obvious by the fact that he is running with a party that when it comes to their Senate and Congressional elections simply cannot lose. The very fact that Obama’s election is not being assumed at this point is a deep problem, and conversely the fact that McCain is leading a Republican Party that cannot win Senatorally or Congressionally, still has a chance Presidentially with him, should be troubling for Obama.
On January 19, when I expressed my belief that McCain would win the Presidency, I defended my claim by citing that, especially after the Bush Administration, the country desires a candidate less divisive and partisan. I suggested that McCain would serve well in this regard. Evidence? Democrat John Kerry was rumoured to be considering naming McCain as his running mate. Former Democratic VP Joseph Lieberman endorsed McCain for President. The McCain-Feingold Bill. The McCain-Kennedy Bill…
The Independent voters, in contrast to Obama’s rhetoric about uniting people of differences, seem to see in McCain someone who has actually actualized such principles, and naming Lieberman as his VP would clinch this.
A final thought. While there are vulnerable states the Republicans hold (Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nevada…) they are insignificant electorally (they hold 3, 3, 3, and 5 votes respectively). I suspect McCain will hold onto the majority of these, but of concern to Obama is the possibility of losing even one or two vulnerable Democratic states (not that McCain needs to win any). Minnesota holds 10 and McCain is currently down by three points (and the Republican National Convention is being held here so that will be a boost), Wisconsin holds 10 and McCain is down by 5 points, Michigan holds 17 and McCain is down by 7 points. Even New York, which holds 33, has McCain only down by 8 points (a state Kerry won by 17, Gore by 25, and Clinton by 28 and 18). Pennsylvania holds 21 and McCain is down here by 5 points. Even the Republican Indiana, with 11 electoral votes, and currently in the hands of Obama, only has McCain down by 1 point. Now McCain only needs to win a couple of these to completely recast the entire election and in light of his gradual strengthening accross states, Obama should be worried.
I suspect McCain will gradually regain the three electorally small Republican states that are currently in Obama’s hands and that McCain will continue to eat away at Obama’s small lead in some very key Democratic states, but ultimately it is Obama who has to win over some past Republican states and he is not in a good position to do so, because he has been introduced to the American electorate and they aren’t buying. If they were going to, they would have by now.
Have at it folks…
Kelly Wilson
August 20, 2008 at 6:59 pm
First of all, I don’t consider it any intrusion for you to comment on American politics. (Would Canadians consider it intrusive of Americans to comment on Canadian politics?)
Second, you’ve made my day. It’s my general practice to ignore the news. After a couple decades of following it more or less daily, I eventually reached the point where I realized it was doing me more harm than good. It was making me mad a lot of the time, and when I wasn’t mad I was worried. Yet none of that anger or worry had made a lick of difference over the years, as far as I could tell. So I decided to quit worrying and being mad.
But I still catch glimpses of the news, and frankly I was worried about an Obama presidency. So I’m greatly relieved to read your analysis. I’m not in a position to critique it objectively and say whether or not it holds water, but it does make sense to me and therefore I’m feeling more hopeful than I have in a while.
So thanks!
August 20, 2008 at 10:35 pm
I suppose I would be more surprised than offended if an American sought to comment on Canadian politics.
Two developments today.
-Indiana, one of those three states yesterday spoken of as being a Democratic pick up from the Republicans is now back in Republican hands
-McCain finds himself a point behind Obama in the electorally insignificant Democratic state of New Hampshire
So now Obama only has two Republican pick ups (11 total electoral votes I believe), and that is not good enough electorally. Add that to what Kerry won in 2004, that would put him just below 270 and McCain a little above. Considering that one needs 270 electoral votes, if the election were held today, Obama would lose.
August 21, 2008 at 3:37 am
“I suppose I would be more surprised than offended if an American sought to comment on Canadian politics.
”
I have nothing to add to a discussion on politics but this sentance made me smile.:)
October 16, 2008 at 12:35 am
[...] and instead will focus on the United States. My own prediction back in January, and then again in August, that McCain would win the Presidency, appears to be in jeopordy. We can discuss the mathematics of [...]
November 21, 2008 at 12:40 pm
hmm.
January 6, 2009 at 1:00 am
I am going to have to prescribe this document written by my father on the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops’ document called “Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship”. This document tells us that their is a specific way we must vote. It does not endorse any person nor any party. It simply specifies how to vote while staying in good conditions with the Church. That means that if you purposely vote a different way (knowing it is wrong), you are sinning.
Over 100 bishops have made statements similar to what my father has to say in this document. Please read it by going to the site listed below.
http://catholicxvi.stblogs.com/2008/12/29/catholic-voting-clarification-on-page-15/