Why McCain will Win

Do forgive yet another intrusion into American politics (it’s rather a long-winded one), but I would like to address those who believe that Sen. Obama will be the next President. I would like to ask which states they believe he can pick up, because when it is considered that Gov. Bush won electorally over Sen. Kerry (286 to 251), it becomes clear that Obama cannot simply win what Kerry did but must also pick up a few new states.

Polling currently shows a total of 18 new electoral votes being picked up by Obama (Indiana, Iowa, and New Mexico) but the polling in two of these states is almost a month old, and the leads are between 1-5 points. Further while Virginia (13 electoral votes), Ohio (20 votes) and Florida (27 votes) are all very close (but leaning Republican), in light of McCain’s gradual gaining of ground, Obama is in deep trouble.

That Obama has a slight edge is clear, but what is bothersome for him is that his support has remained between 44-47% despite the fact that the wider electorate has now been able to familiarize themselves with him. They have not warmed to him. That they have not latched onto him shows a discomfort with something that his charasmatic speeches have not been able to distract from. While each of the party bases will more or less support their own candidate, it is those who consider themselves ‘independent’ who will determine the Presidency (even if Obama is able to bring out a large number of new voters, which state will he be able to take as a result?).

Obama’s problem should be obvious by the fact that he is running with a party that when it comes to their Senate and Congressional elections simply cannot lose. The very fact that Obama’s election is not being assumed at this point is a deep problem, and conversely the fact that McCain is leading a Republican Party that cannot win Senatorally or Congressionally, still has a chance Presidentially with him, should be troubling for Obama.

On January 19, when I expressed my belief that McCain would win the Presidency, I defended my claim by citing that, especially after the Bush Administration, the country desires a candidate less divisive and partisan. I suggested that McCain would serve well in this regard. Evidence? Democrat John Kerry was rumoured to be considering naming McCain as his running mate. Former Democratic VP Joseph Lieberman endorsed McCain for President. The McCain-Feingold Bill. The McCain-Kennedy Bill…

The Independent voters, in contrast to Obama’s rhetoric about uniting people of differences, seem to see in McCain someone who has actually actualized such principles, and naming Lieberman as his VP would clinch this.

A final thought. While there are vulnerable states the Republicans hold (Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nevada…) they are insignificant electorally (they hold 3, 3, 3, and 5 votes respectively). I suspect McCain will hold onto the majority of these, but of concern to Obama is the possibility of losing even one or two vulnerable Democratic states (not that McCain needs to win any). Minnesota holds 10 and McCain is currently down by three points (and the Republican National Convention is being held here so that will be a boost), Wisconsin holds 10 and McCain is down by 5 points, Michigan holds 17 and McCain is down by 7 points. Even New York, which holds 33, has McCain only down by 8 points (a state Kerry won by 17, Gore by 25, and Clinton by 28 and 18). Pennsylvania holds 21 and McCain is down here by 5 points. Even the Republican Indiana, with 11 electoral votes, and currently in the hands of Obama, only has McCain down by 1 point. Now McCain only needs to win a couple of these to completely recast the entire election and in light of his gradual strengthening accross states, Obama should be worried.

I suspect McCain will gradually regain the three electorally small Republican states that are currently in Obama’s hands and that McCain will continue to eat away at Obama’s small lead in some very key Democratic states, but ultimately it is Obama who has to win over some past Republican states and he is not in a good position to do so, because he has been introduced to the American electorate and they aren’t buying. If they were going to, they would have by now.

Have at it folks…

Kelly Wilson

Obama’s VP Nominee?

As to who Barack Obama will pick as his running mate, if merit determines his selection, I believe both of these men dramatically compensate Obama’s own perceived inexperience, and are strong choices. Here is a superficial description of each.

Bill Richardson

Richardson is the 60 year old Governor of New Mexico. His CV is more impressive than any of the other Democratic Presidential candidates for 2008. He has been been Governor, Secretary of Energy, the US Ambassador to the UN, and a member of the US House of Representatives.

He is Roman Catholic, is Spanish-American, is strongly pro-abortion, and has a strong record of defending the rights of minorities like those disabled, and members of the GLBT communities . He is very tough on crime, has been endorsed for Governor by the NRA, and strongly supports capital punishment. His policies on Immigration strike me as being along the lines of the failed McCain-Kennedy plan of last summer (even though he identified it as flawed). He has supported the de-authorization (and defunding) of the war in Iraq, and a complete withdrawl of the troops. He has a consistent record of balancing budges. He promises to take the lead on ending the genocide in Darfur, and has committed to meeting Aung San Suu Kyi who is under Burmese house arrest. He expresses a desire to see a more affordable healthcare plan for those less fortunate. He appears also to recognize the need for energy reform, and has some expertise in the Energy field.

Joe Biden

Joe Biden, age 65, is a lawyer by training has been since 1973 a US Senator representing Delaware. He has served as the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary, and the Committee on Foreign Relations.

Biden supports Roe v. Wade, but voted twice voted to ban the partial birth abortion procedure and opposes federal funding for abortion. He supports the federal funding for stem cell research. He voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment, supports civil unions and adding sexual orientation to the criteria for a hate crime. He is against the death penalty, and is particularly strong on hate crimes (he supports heavier punishments for these) and sexual crimes (he supports a FBI registry for sexual offenders), although he is against mandatory sentencing. He supports abstinence education, but is against school vouchers and voluntary prayer, and is generally supported by Teacher’s unions. He supported the failed McCain-Kennedy immigration plan of last summer, understands the complexity of the Iraq War, supports sending troops to Darfur, is pro-Israel, and is strongly critical of the Castro regime. He supports balanced budgets, believes in providing health care for those less fortunate, and has talked openly about how his faith in God got him through the death of his wife and daughter (both were killed in a car accident just after he was elected). Prayer and faith, Biden (a Roman Catholic) says, give you strength but does not prevent crisis.

There you have it. Thoughts? Someone who would be better? I hate to summarize their views so superficially, so perhaps we might discuss them in greater detail in the comment section, and also discuss what they add (besides merit) to the Obama ticket? I have also tried (to a degree) not to judge their positions in this post, simply to identify them.

Kelly Wilson